Tec de Monterrey, 2021

This project was a unique blend of aerospace engineering, thermodynamics, and forensic investigation, centered on the infamous incident during the Bosnian War where a U.S. Air Force F-16 fighter jet was reportedly shot down by a Serbian 2K12 surface-to-air missile battery. The team began by revisiting the geopolitical setting: post-Yugoslav conflicts, NATO’s Operation Deny Flight, and the deployment of F-16s to enforce a no-fly zone. These jets were tasked with intercepting hostile aircraft and protecting civilians, but the mission carried high risks as they operated deep within contested airspace.

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To investigate the event, the team first conducted a state-of-the-art review of aircraft and missile propulsion systems:

• Aircraft engines: They studied the evolution from Otto-cycle piston engines to jet propulsion, focusing on the turbofan engine powering the F-16. The report detailed its main components—diffuser, fan, axial compressor, combustion chamber, turbine, and nozzle—and explained their role in producing thrust.

• Missile engines: In contrast, surface-to-air missiles use rocket engines, which carry their own oxidizer and do not rely on atmospheric air, allowing them to maintain thrust even at high altitudes.

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This foundational knowledge was crucial for modeling the event as a thermodynamic process.

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The F-16’s engine was modeled using the ideal Brayton cycle, with data approximated from black box information and manufacturer specs. The team calculated:

• Pressure ratio at 15,000 m altitude: from 0.12 atm (ambient) to 6.87 atm (post-compression).

• Efficiency of the cycle: ≈68.5%, derived from temperature ratios.

• Compressor work: calculated from mass flow (≈93 kg/s) and enthalpy rise (≈560 kJ/kg).

• Exhaust velocity: ≈763 m/s, equivalent to Mach 2.2 at operating conditions.

• Nozzle exit velocity: ≈1,525 m/s after area contraction, though this does not directly equal aircraft speed.

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These calculations confirmed the F-16 was likely flying at or near maximum speed when the missile approached. 

The missile’s estimated speed (~Mach 2.8, or 952 m/s) and effective range (~14 km) were compared with the F-16’s performance. The analysis suggested that, despite the jet’s high speed, its maneuvering time and distance were insufficient to evade the incoming missile.

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Interestingly, the team also considered the possibility that the missile did not directly destroy the jet, but rather forced the pilot into a maximum-performance climb that overstressed the engine or airframe, causing failure. They explored alternate hypotheses, including radar detection failures and possible mission secrecy, which might have influenced the official narrative.

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The project concluded that the F-16 was most likely hit by the missile or forced into a terminal failure during evasive action, leaving little chance of survival for the aircraft.

From an engineering standpoint, the study highlighted:

• The importance of thermodynamic cycle modeling for real-world performance prediction.

• The need for maneuverability margins and structural safety factors in combat aircraft design.

• The potential role of sensor reliability and electronic warfare systems in mission survivability.

Beyond the calculations, the report underscored how engineering analysis can shed light on historical events and inform future design improvements for aviation safety and performance

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Please find attached below the relevant documents to this project. (Note: most, if not all documents, are in Spanish)